Technical Analysis

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Infosys Tech

Analysts'Picks: Infosys Tech
27 Aug, 2008

Infosys Tech
cmp: Rs 1,697.60
target price: Rs 1,703

Broking firm Edelweiss Securities has maintained its ‘accumulate’ rating on the stock as it believes that the company’s recent acquisition of the Axon group would bolster the company’s presence in the consulting space.

“The deal is earnings per share (EPS) neutral on standalone basis in FY09 (estimated), but EPS accretion in FY10 (estimated) depends on Axon’s growth and margin trajectory. Incorporating the financial impact of this acquisition, the stock trades at 16.5 times and 13.9 times FY09 and FY10 earnings respectively,” the note said. However, according to the brokerage firm, slowdown in US, significant increase in the salary hikes and attrition rate, reduction in the number of H1B visas granted by US, and incremental appreciation of rupee against US dollar, euro and GBP remain key concerns for the company.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Reliance

Vornado, RIL team up for shopping centres
August 15, 2008,

The US-based real estate investment trust Vornado Realty Trust has announced an equal joint venture with the Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries to acquire, develop and operate shopping malls in India. Both partners will invest $250 million (nearly Rs 1,000 crore) each in the JV.

“The shopping centers, spread over 5,00,000 to 10 lakh square feet or more, will be anchored by a hypermarket owned and operated by Reliance,” Vornado said.

The JV is expected to boost the expansion plans of RIL’s retail venture Reliance Retail, which operates 700 multiple-format stores across 60 cities, encompassing 3.5 million sqft.

Reliance Retail has announced ambitious plans to the tune of Rs 25,000 crore. The retailer runs neighbourhood store Reliance Fresh, consumer durable chain Reliance Digital, hypermarket chain Reliance Mart, apparel chain Reliance Trends and footwear chain Reliance Footprint.

The New York Stock Exchange-listed Vornado already has an exposure to the Indian realty market. The company has an aggregate investment nearing $91 million and capital commitments of $92 million in joint ventures across the country. Vornado Realty Fund, an integrated real estate investment trust, owns over 100 million sq ft of office, retail and other properties in the US.

Retail rentals have doubled in most premium locations across Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore in the last three years. Retailers have been hit hard due to the soaring realty prices, delays in getting properties and reduction in footfalls.

In a bid to counter this, most retailers have floated their own funds that invest in shopping malls or formed JVs to invest in real estate.

Future Group, which houses India’s largest retailer Pantaloons, has floated Kshitij realty fund that invests in the group’s shopping malls. Tata’s retail arm Trent has tied up with private equity firm The Xander Group to float a retail real estate fund, while Aditya Birla Retail, formed by AV Birla group, has plans to float a retail real estate fund.

The domestic retail market that is currently valued at $511 billion, is projected to grow to $833 billion in the next five years. Organised retail is expected to grow by 40 per cent every year to $107 billion by 2013, according to retail consultancy AT Kearney.

Property consultancy CB Richard Ellis sees a likelihood of nearly 100 million sq ft retail property being developed. Some of the biggest shopping centre developers and investors have started their operations in the country. South Africa’s Old Mutual Property Investments, the UK’s Liberty International, Israel’s Plaza Centres and Metro Junction have announced plans in the country.

Analysts are however concerned about an impending oversupply of space in the retail sector. “Over-supply and saturation may result in correction of rentals in certain pockets and micro-markets in the short to medium-term,’’ said a report from property consultancy CB Richard Ellis.

Saturday, August 9, 2008

JP Associates

AnandRathi puts 'buy' on JP Associates; target Rs 232
6 Aug, 2008,

AnandRathi has advised buying Jaiprakash Associates at around the current price for a target of Rs 232 and a stop loss of Rs 168.

JP Associates, after a descent consolidation exhibits a trend reversal, rise in RSI from over sold zone indicates a medium term buy.

Based on the chart pattern developed to date, the stock is likely to get support around Rs.170.

The brokerage suggests accumulating more if the stock comes close to the support level. If it moves above Rs 232 level then it can even touch Rs 254 levels.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

HPCL

ICICI Securities maintains a 'buy' on HPCL
6 Aug, 2008

CMP: Rs 234.20
Target price: NA

ICICI Securities has maintained a ‘buy’ rating on HPCL even after the company reported a recurring loss of Rs 880 crore in the first quarter of the current financial year due to lower than expected subsidy support from the government and upstream companies.

The brokerage expects subsidy support to increase over the year as the government has not yet accounted for the Rs 40,000 crore unallocated burden. “Though we continue to believe that the stock may remain subdued in the short term till the government decides the final subsidy burden-sharing formula, the company is trading at a significant discount to the replacement value of its asset,” says the report.

The brokerage also highlights the fact that risks of further increase in interest costs along with expectations of a fall in refining margins could potentially impact earnings. Positive surprise, however, on higher subsidy sharing by upstream companies and oil bonds could be a boost to stock prices, it adds.

Positive news on the E&P front and implementation of subsidy reforms recommended by the Rangarajan Committee could trigger re-rating in the stock, says the report.

Disclaimer

Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts.The information provided is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading any stock or Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken by them. The author won't be liable or responsible for any legal or financial losses made by anybody.